U.S. green card freeze puts India’s $221.4Bn IT exports at risk: GTRI
- The U.S. took 54.1% of India’s software and IT-enabled services exports.
- India’s software and IT-enabled services exports reached $221.4 billion in 2025-26.
- GTRI estimates $109.8 billion of U.S.-bound exports were delivered from India.
- The think tank warns curbs could spread to H-1B hiring and outsourcing.
NEW DELHI, INDIA — India’s IT industry should brace for U.S. restrictions that go beyond green cards to H-1B hiring, skilled worker mobility and outsourcing itself, after Washington froze green card filings for eight technology companies. The United States buys more than half of India’s software and IT-enabled services exports, so any further shift in policy would land on the industry’s biggest market.
A $119.7Bn exposure
The U.S. accounted for $119.7 billion, or 54.1%, of India’s $221.4 billion in software and IT-enabled services exports in 2025-26, the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) said, according to KNN India, citing PTI. The think tank was responding to the Oct. 8 suspension of Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), Infosys, Wipro, HCLTech, Cognizant, Capgemini, Microsoft and Adobe from the U.S. Permanent Labor Certification (PERM) program.
“The measure signals a more protectionist US approach to foreign technology workers,” said GTRI founder Ajay Srivastava. GTRI said Indian firms should prepare for restrictions that extend beyond green card sponsorship to H-1B hiring, skilled worker mobility and outsourcing.
Most of the work is delivered from India
Most of that trade does not depend on staff working in the U.S. GTRI said 91.7% of India’s software and IT-enabled services exports were delivered from India in 2025-26, and applying that split to the U.S. market suggests about $109.8 billion was delivered from India and $9.9 billion through on-site work.
Srivastava cautioned that the estimate rests on worldwide delivery shares rather than U.S.-specific data, and that only part of on-site work involves employees seeking green cards through PERM. “Immediate disruption to client projects may therefore be limited, even as firms face greater difficulty attracting and retaining staff for US roles,” he said.
GTRI said the suspension could also encourage multinationals to expand their global capability centers (GCCs) in India. It urged Indian firms to widen their export markets, strengthen delivery from India and move into AI and higher-value technology work.
For U.S. clients, the warning points to more work moving offshore, not less. Buyers relying on Indian providers for onsite roles should check how much of their program depends on U.S.-based staff and how quickly that work could shift to offshore outsourcing delivery. Firms comparing providers can benchmark them on the top BPO companies worldwide list.
Related news
- U.S. freezes green card filings for TCS, Infosys, Wipro, Cognizant · 12 Oct
- BPO powers India’s $221.4Bn software export haul · 22 Sep
- Trump renews $100,000 H-1B fee for another year · 22 Sep
Disclosure: Outsource Accelerator uses AI tools in the backend of its editorial workflow. Every article is reviewed and verified by a human editor before publication.
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