Economist: Base future of work policies on past, present lessons
MASSACHUSETTS, UNITED STATES — Jason Furman, former economic adviser to President Barack Obama and current Harvard professor, argues that policies addressing the future of work should be grounded in lessons from the past and present rather than speculative predictions.
In a recent essay for the Economic Innovation Group, Furman contends that while the impact of artificial intelligence and automation on jobs remains uncertain, policymakers should focus on proven strategies to support workers.
Past lessons inform future work policies
Furman began by acknowledging the unpredictable nature of the future job market, particularly with the rise of generative AI.
“No economist, AI engineer, or policymaker knows the answers to these questions,” Furman said, referring to AI’s potential impacts on employment.
He argued that the uncertainty surrounding future work trends necessitates a reliance on what is known from the past and present.
He criticized the focus on the “future of work” discussions that gained momentum in 2009, during a period of high unemployment due to inadequate demand.
According to Furman, the real issue at that time was policymakers’ failure to learn from macroeconomic history.
“In the fifteen years since this conversation took off, work has changed surprisingly little, except for a shift to work from home which was largely ignored by most of the discussions prior to 2020,” he noted.
Adding to "future of work" discussion boom, new essay makes 4 points:
1. Solutions shouldn't be reshaping algorithms, instead reshape policy
2. Doing nothing not good
3. Base policies on recent past not speculations about future
4. Redistribution will remain critical
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— Jason Furman (@jasonfurman) July 9, 2024
Education, training key to worker success in AI era
Furman emphasizes the importance of education and training programs in preparing workers for technological changes. He notes that employment rates have consistently been higher for those with more education.
“For as long as we have been collecting data, employment rates are higher and less volatile for people with greater degrees of education.”
He recommends expanding educational opportunities, including universal preschool and increased access to college. Furman also advocates for more investment in active labor market policies, such as job training and apprenticeships.
Redistribution may play larger role
Furman argued for a robust redistribution framework to mitigate potential adverse impacts on employment and wages. He suggested that tax and transfer policies, though less ambitious than employment policies, are well-understood and provide a safety net.
He also cautions against over-relying on technological solutions or attempting to reshape algorithms to address workforce challenges. Instead, he advocates for evidence-based economic policies that can be evaluated and adjusted over time.
“Overall, we should hope for the best but prepare for the worst. And the right way to prepare is to better optimize our economic policies for the economy of today, ultimately ensuring their efficacy for the economy of tomorrow,” he concluded.
