Global outsourcing leaders predict industry evolution through 2030
NEW YORK, UNITED STATES — Industry experts predict artificial intelligence will augment rather than replace most global outsourcing jobs through 2030, though growing nationalism and potential U.S. service tariffs pose significant risks to the sector.
Leaders in the global outsourcing industry gathered at a Global Technology and Business Services Council (GTBSC) webinar to discuss the future of outsourcing, highlighting both opportunities and challenges facing the sector in 2025 and beyond.
AI integration: Evolution not revolution
Despite widespread concerns about artificial intelligence replacing jobs, experts emphasized that AI will augment rather than replace human workers.
“75 percent of tasks will be augmented, not replaced,” noted Mark Angus, CEO of Genesis Global Business Services.
David Rickard from Everest Group pointed to an interesting statistic from Microsoft: “In the early 2000s, there were four million call center employees, and now there are 17 million, despite all the extra technology we’ve brought in.”
The panel cautioned against rushing into AI implementations without clear business cases.
“Everyone’s bosses [are] hearing about AI… But when we’re contracting for these things, we’re not seeing the timeline,” observed Todd Hintze, Partner at Wavestone.
Global outsourcing market growth and geographic shifts
The global market for BPO, ITO, and professional and shared services is projected to reach almost $1.5 trillion by 2027, according to data presented during the webinar.
Asia-Pacific continues to dominate with 32.5% market share, followed by North America (30%), and Europe and the UK (22.5%). Still, emerging regions such as Latin America and the Caribbean (8%) and Africa (2.8%) are gaining ground.
Naresh Lachmandas, Senior Partner at Avasant, characterized 2024 as “a year of pause” in decision-making, with organizations delaying outsourcing versus technology investments. However, he advised that “2025 must be a year of decisive action for innovation, transformation, and technology investments.”
Political and economic challenges
The panel expressed concern about potential U.S. tariffs on services and growing nationalism.
Peter Ryan of Ryan Strategic Advisory warned that if tariffs “ever did get implemented by the world’s largest consumer economy, the impact would be tremendous on the service space.”
Looking ahead to 2030, most experts expect evolution rather than revolution. “I don’t think it’s going to look that different than it does now,” said Ryan. “This is still a human-led game.”
The experts emphasized that successful outsourcing providers must move beyond cost advantages to deliver specialized expertise and value.
“Stop thinking about BPO as a location decision, but more as about it as being a capability decision,” advised Angus, suggesting that providers should focus on “expertise-driven outsourcing” and vertical specialization rather than just cost savings.
