Gartner: 40% of agentic AI projects face cancellation
SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA — More than 40% of agentic artificial intelligence (AI) projects will be canceled by the end of 2027, according to a new forecast from Gartner, Inc.
The research firm cites escalating costs, unclear business value, and inadequate risk controls as the primary reasons behind the projected wave of cancellations.
“Most agentic AI projects right now are early stage experiments or proof of concepts that are mostly driven by hype and are often misapplied,” said Anushree Verma, Senior Director Analyst, Gartner.
“This can blind organizations to the real cost and complexity of deploying AI agents at scale, stalling projects from moving into production. They need to cut through the hype to make careful, strategic decisions about where and how they apply this emerging technology.”
Investment patterns and ‘agent washing’
A January 2025 Gartner survey of 3,412 webinar attendees revealed a cautious approach to agentic AI adoption: 19% reported significant investments, 42% made conservative investments, 8% had not invested, and 31% were undecided or taking a wait-and-see stance.
The market is also facing what Gartner calls “agent washing,” the practice of rebranding existing products, such as AI assistants, robotic process automation (RPA) tools, and chatbots, as agentic AI without adding substantial new capabilities.
Gartner estimates that only about 130 of the thousands of vendors claiming to offer agentic AI are delivering genuine solutions.
“Most agentic AI propositions lack significant value or return on investment (ROI), as current models don’t have the maturity and agency to autonomously achieve complex business goals or follow nuanced instructions over time,” Verma noted.
“Many use cases positioned as agentic today don’t require agentic implementations.”
Future potential and strategic guidance
Despite these challenges, Gartner sees long-term promise in agentic AI. The firm predicts that by 2028, at least 15% of day-to-day work decisions will be made autonomously by agentic AI, up from virtually zero in 2024.
Additionally, 33% of enterprise software applications are expected to include agentic AI by 2028, compared to less than 1% today.
Gartner advises organizations to pursue agentic AI only where there is clear value or return on investment. Integrating these agents into legacy systems can be complex and disruptive, often requiring a complete rethinking of workflows.
“To get real value from agentic AI, organizations must focus on enterprise productivity, rather than just individual task augmentation,” said Verma.
“They can start by using AI agents when decisions are needed, automation for routine workflows and assistants for simple retrieval. It’s about driving business value through cost, quality, speed and scale.”
