Baby boomers’ exit leaves U.S. workforce gap
WASHINGTON, D.C., UNITED STATES — The United States is aging faster than it is reproducing. New Census Bureau estimates show the 65-and-older population grew 3.1% from 2023 to 2024, while the under-18 cohort slipped 0.2%.
Notably, the number of states where older adults outnumber children rose to 11 in 2024, up from just three in 2020.
Lauren Bowers, chief of the Census Bureau’s Population Estimates Branch, noted, “Children still outnumber older adults in the United States, despite a decline in births this decade. However, the gap is narrowing as baby boomers continue to age into their retirement years.”
Shrinking labor force participation
Many older workers who left jobs during the pandemic have not returned. By March 2025, the labor force participation rate among those over 55 was about five percentage points—or 2 million workers—lower than before the pandemic.
In contrast, most other age groups have bounced back to or surpassed pre-pandemic participation levels.
Economists warn that as all baby boomers reach age 65 by the end of 2029, the labor market could face a significant shortfall.
The Conference Board estimates that the U.S. needs to add 4.6 million workers annually, which is four times the average rate of the past decade, to keep up with demand.
Fewer births, rising child care costs
The future labor pool looks even slimmer. The average number of children Americans aged 29 to 39 plan to have dropped to 1.8 in 2023, down from 2.3 in 2012, well below the 2.1 needed for population replacement. In 2023, the U.S. fertility rate fell to about 1.62 births per woman, the lowest in nearly a century.
Rising costs are a major factor. The average annual cost of center-based child care reached $9,200 in 2025, accounting for 10% of median household income for families with young children, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
“Child care is essential to parents who want and need to work. The shortage of care, especially high quality child care, has a decided impact on the nation’s economy since so many workers are parents,” said senior researcher Ana Hernández Kent.
Many parents, especially mothers, report that the inability to arrange affordable child care keeps them out of the workforce, further compounding labor shortages.
Economic risks ahead
With the baby boomer generation exiting the workforce and younger generations having fewer children, the U.S. faces a looming gap between available jobs and workers.
Economists caution that persistent labor shortages could threaten economic growth and business competitiveness, making it harder to keep prices stable and wages rising.
