AI tilts job market against young workers, CEOs survey finds

NEW YORK, UNITED STATES — More than 40% of chief executives plan to cut junior roles over the next one to two years and shift hiring toward mid-level and senior positions — while only 17% plan to expand entry-level work — a near-complete reversal from a year ago, according to a new  global survey by consulting firm Oliver Wyman.

CEOs are betting on experience as AI handles junior tasks

AI agents can write code at a junior developer‘s level and evaluate sales leads, but they consistently fall short when judgment, institutional knowledge and professional experience are required. That capability gap is reshaping employer priorities. 

A Harvard University study found that firms adopting generative AI significantly reduced junior positions while keeping senior employment largely stable, corroborating what the Oliver Wyman CEO survey now confirms at scale.

“I think the junior level is definitely finding it harder now to enter the workforce,” said John Romeo, who leads the Oliver Wyman Forum, the consulting firm’s research arm. 

“It’s those mid- and senior-level employees that CEOs are now looking at to drive productivitY,” Romeo added.

Young workers bear the brunt as entry-level openings shrink

The data is stark. A New York Fed report found the job market for 22-to-27-year-olds “deteriorated noticeably” in the first quarter of the year.  Stanford University research found young workers are 16% more likely to lose their jobs in the most AI-exposed fields. 

International Business Machines announced in February it plans to triple United States entry-level hiring in 2026 — a commitment that now reads as the exception rather than the rule.

The longer-term risk is structural: to develop the mid-level workers who can manage AI agent workflows, companies need a pipeline of junior hires learning the company and the job — a pipeline many are now cutting. 

“Firms’ commitment to workers is weaker and weaker,” said Teresa Ghilarducci, a labor economist at the New School.

For business process outsourcing (BPO) and outsourcing companies, the CEO survey signals a shift in client hiring intent that runs directly through  outsourcing demand. 

As domestic junior hiring contracts and clients concentrate investment in experienced roles, outsourcing providers that can deliver seasoned, AI-literate talent — not entry-level volume — are positioned to become the default answer for workforce strategy conversations that clients no longer want to solve internally.