AI could displace 6-7% of U.S. jobs, impact temporary: Goldman Sachs
NEW YORK, UNITED STATES — A recent Goldman Sachs Research report warns that artificial intelligence (AI) could displace between 6% and 7% of the United States workforce if widely adopted. However, the impact on overall employment is expected to be temporary as new job opportunities created by AI will absorb displaced workers.
Joseph Briggs, co-leader of Goldman Sachs’ Global Economics team, and economist Sarah Dong wrote, “While these trends could broaden as adoption increases, we remain skeptical that AI will lead to large employment reductions over the next decade.”
They estimate that generative AI could boost labor productivity by about 15% in developed markets once fully integrated into production.
Sectoral effects and early signs of disruption
Low AI adoption rates are currently limiting its labor market impact, particularly among small and midsize businesses. Early disruptions have emerged mainly in marketing consulting, graphic design, office administration, and call centers, showing employment growth below trend levels.
Tech-sector employment, including computer systems design and software publishing, has slowed sharply. The share of tech jobs in the economy fell below pre-pandemic trends, an effect likely linked to AI automation.
Young tech workers aged 20 to 30 have experienced nearly a 3 percentage point rise in unemployment since early 2025, notably higher than peers in other sectors.
Jobs most and least at risk from AI
Goldman Sachs identifies occupations most vulnerable to AI displacement as computer programmers, accountants and auditors, legal and administrative assistants, customer service representatives, telemarketers, proofreaders, and credit analysts.
Conversely, jobs least at risk include air traffic controllers, chief executives, radiologists, pharmacists, residential advisers, photographers, and clergy members.
The report highlights that job loss risks vary, with a baseline estimate of 6-7% displacement but potential variation from 3% to 14% under different assumptions.
Temporary nature of AI-driven unemployment
The report notes two potential mechanisms for unemployment increases: long-term structural unemployment if human labor becomes redundant, and temporary frictional unemployment as displaced workers retrain and seek new roles.
Goldman Sachs considers long-term structural unemployment unlikely due to historical trends showing technological change often creates more jobs than it destroys.
The team expects employment disruptions to resemble previous technology transitions, with temporary jobless rates rising by about 0.5 percentage points but normalizing typically within two years.
In summary, AI adoption means some job displacement but it is expected to be transitional. The extent of AI’s broader impact will depend on adoption levels and how employers deploy the technology in the coming years.
“Until the AI adoption cycle has fully played out, the potential labor market disruption … will remain an open question,” the report concludes.
