AI job cuts to rise 9x in 2026, yet doom scenarios overstated
KOWLOON, HONG KONG — United States companies are expected to see a sharp rise in AI-driven layoffs this year, but the feared mass job losses may be overstated, according to a report from Fortune Media.
While technology leaders have painted a picture of imminent white-collar disruption, chief financial officers (CFOs) say the reality is more nuanced, signaling a complex future of work as businesses adopt artificial intelligence (AI).
Layoffs rising, but far from “doomsday” levels
The working paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research, surveying 750 U.S. chief financial officers, found that only 44% of firms plan AI-related job cuts in 2026.
Across the broader economy, this translates to roughly 502,000 roles, or 0.4% of the total workforce, about half in white-collar positions. This represents a ninefold increase from 55,000 AI-driven layoffs in 2025 but remains a small fraction of total job losses.
“It’s not the doomsday job scenario that you might sometimes see in the headlines,” said John Graham, co-author of the study and director of the Duke CFO survey, conducted in partnership with the Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta and Richmond.
The research highlights a gap between the promise of AI and its immediate impact on productivity. While executives are optimistic about AI’s potential, workers report higher workloads, with some responsibilities taking up to 346% more time.
“Companies have invested and they’re realizing all these kind of cool things that they’re either starting to do or they hope to do in the near future,” Graham said.
“But it’s not really showing up yet in revenue,” Graham added.
Small firms see opportunities amid AI adoption
While large companies may maintain technical roles or cut positions, smaller firms—those with fewer than 500 employees—are beginning to adopt AI and plan to hire more technical talent.
“If anything, small companies are hiring a bit on the technical side which will offset [losses] a little bit,” Graham noted.
Recent high-profile layoffs, including Block’s 40% workforce reduction and Meta’s reported 20% cut, illustrate AI’s growing role in reshaping jobs, yet economists caution that economy-wide productivity gains have not yet materialized.
The study invokes Solow’s paradox, the decades-old observation that transformative technologies can appear ubiquitous without immediately boosting measurable productivity.
As AI continues to change workflows, the future of work will likely involve both displacement and creation of roles, particularly in technical and hybrid positions.
“Who knows what’s going to happen in 2028? I’m not making a prediction that there will never be any jobs lost two, three and five years from now to AI,” Graham said, emphasizing the uncertainty ahead.
