Global CEOs bullish on 2026 as AI ROI tensions rise: Teneo survey
NEW YORK, UNITED STATES — A global survey reveals sustained confidence among Chief Executive Officers (CEOs) and investors for economic growth in 2026, driving expectations for increased investment, hiring, and mergers and acquisitions.
However, the study by advisory firm Teneo identifies a significant tension: impatient investors demand faster returns on massive corporate investments in artificial intelligence (AI) than many large-company leaders believe are feasible.
“We continue to see optimism for 2026 with most expecting at least a short-term increase in hiring as well as increased M&A activity and international and domestic investment,” said Paul Keary, CEO of Teneo.
Economic optimism and global shifts
Teneo surveyed more than 350 public company CEOs and 400 institutional investors, with 73% of CEOs and 82% of investors projecting that the global economy will improve in 2026.
This is driving high M&A activity, as 78% of CEOs forecast more global deals, especially in healthcare, resources, industrials, and technology.
However, this belief is marred by apparent geopolitical and economic headwinds. CEO confidence in large-cap stocks has dropped 20 points annually, driven by global trade issues, geopolitical uncertainty, and technological disruption.
Most CEOs (60%) and investors (57%) agree that the pace of deglobalization will accelerate in 2026, and CEOs predict that, in 10 years, India will be more strategic than China.
While China remains a critical priority for its market and supply chain strength today, India is viewed as the future demand engine and talent powerhouse driving long-term competitiveness.
AI spending surge and investor ROI demands
Despite corporate AI investments, a stark disconnect has emerged between the timelines investors demand for returns and the realities CEOs foresee, simultaneously reshaping workforce planning.
As Ursula Burns, Chairwoman of Teneo, notes, “Along with that investment, an increase in new skilled hires across all seniority levels will help deliver on corporate AI ambitions.”
“Investors, however, are becoming increasingly impatient for ROI on these AI investments, creating a tension that will be important to watch in the year ahead,” she added.
The survey finds AI is the fastest-growing investment area for 2026, with 68% of CEOs planning to increase spending, and an overwhelming majority (88% of CEOs, 84% of investors) believing AI helps navigate business disruption.
This spending, however, is under immediate pressure from investor impatience. Although 53% of investors believe that AI initiatives will pay off in six months or less, only 16% of large-cap CEOs think they can reward investors on that schedule, and 84% believe it will take longer.
As a result, companies are transforming their human resources to fuel AI aspirations and accelerate ROI, with 67% of CEOs anticipating more entry-level staffing and 58% projecting more senior management staffing in 2026.
The report notes, “Businesses are reshaping the workforce in the near term to get to AI ROI faster and deliver on business priorities, but this does not signal a long-term upward curve.”
This growing clash is pushing a radical yet precarious reshaping of the workforce, setting the stage for a defining boardroom challenge in which economic optimism hinges on bridging the gap between impatient capital and the uncertain payoff of intelligent machines.
