AI will create more jobs than it kills starting 2028: Gartner

CONNECTICUT, UNITED STATES — AI will generate more jobs than it eliminates beginning in 2028, but the transition will “break down millions of careers” in the process, according to new Gartner research — findings that are forcing HR leaders to rebuild talent pipelines before the demand surge hits.

AI job gains hinge on rebuilding talent pipelines

“AI is ultimately going to result in more job gains than losses, but in the process it’s going to break down millions of careers,” said Kaelyn Lowmaster, Director Analyst in the Gartner HR practice. 

The immediate risk, she said: organizations that fail to rebuild talent pipelines before 2028 will lack the workers needed to fill the roles AI creates.

A December 2025 Gartner survey of 110 HR leaders found 40% of organizations have already eliminated outdated roles and nearly half have redesigned team structures to be more cross-functional or agile. 

AI is accelerating this further by automating entry-level work — removing the development runway that traditionally built judgment and foundational expertise in junior employees.

Gartner urges skills over experience in promotion systems

Lowmaster put the talent readiness problem plainly. 

“Performance at one level is no longer a proxy for readiness for more senior roles,” she said, noting that AI support allows employees to exceed current goals without building the depth of expertise that more complex roles demand.

Gartner identified two priorities for CHROs: first, identify the skills critical for next-level success and deprioritize those becoming obsolete.

Second, CHROs must advance talent based on learning agility and adaptability rather than historical role criteria.

“Organizations that invest now in rebuilding career advancement pathways based on skills and adaptability will be best positioned to meet future talent demand, whereas those that don’t risk creating deep capability gaps just as AI-driven growth accelerates,” Lowmaster said.

The structural shift Gartner describes has a direct BPO read. Offshore providers that have long sourced entry-level talent are now facing a talent pipeline problem identical to the one Gartner is flagging for enterprise HR teams — AI is hollowing out the junior roles that once fed capability development. 

BPO companies that build accelerated, skills-based development programs into their delivery model will be better positioned to supply the senior, judgment-intensive talent that both their clients and their own operations will need as AI-driven growth accelerates.