Bachelor’s degree crucial for good jobs by 2031, U.S. study finds

WASHINGTON, D.C., UNITED STATES — A recent report by Georgetown University’s Center on Education and the Workforce (CEW) projects that by 2031, the majority of good-paying jobs in the United States will require at least a bachelor’s degree. 

The study, titled “The Future of Good Jobs: Projections Through 2031,” highlights that 66% of new jobs will demand a bachelor’s degree, with technological advancements and a shrinking labor force driving this trend.

“Our numbers are very clear: Bachelor’s and graduate degrees are going to dominate,” said Artem Gulish, senior federal policy adviser at CEW and co-author of the report. 

“They’ll require much more of those quantitative and analytical skills. The organizational and business complexities are going to grow with greater technological capabilities.”

Shifting landscape of good jobs

The report defines a “good job” as one that pays a national minimum salary of $43,000 to workers aged 25 to 44 and $55,000 to workers aged 45 to 64. 

While opportunities for workers without a bachelor’s degree will still exist, the study indicates that securing such positions will become increasingly challenging.

The report also notes a decline in middle-skills pathways, which include credentials like certificates or associate degrees. By 2031, only 19% of good jobs are expected to be accessible to workers without a four-year degree, down from 22% in 2021. 

For high school graduates, the availability of good jobs is projected to drop from 19% to 15% over the same period.

Economic opportunity will increasingly favor workers with higher levels of education and training. Read our new report to find our projections for good jobs in 2031: https://t.co/6HH1YNQfsa

— Georgetown CEW (@GeorgetownCEW) July 30, 2024

Managerial and professional occupations lead growth

Managerial and professional occupations are projected to add 6.2 million new good jobs through 2031, the largest increase of any sector. However, 84% of these office jobs will require at least a bachelor’s degree. 

STEM fields, healthcare, education, law, and business are among the promising avenues for earning wages that could comfortably support a family.

Catherine Morris, co-author of the report, reinforced the importance of a bachelor’s degree, stating, “While the middle-skills pathway offers new opportunities, we still see the bachelor’s degree and middle-skills pathways as complements, not substitutes.”

The report stands in contrast to recent efforts by some states and companies to reduce or eliminate four-year degree requirements for certain positions.