U.S. SMB CEO confidence edges down as hiring outlook cools
CALIFORNIA, UNITED STATES — United States small and midsize business leaders are entering 2026 with softer confidence and more cautious hiring plans, signaling a shift in workforce strategy that could accelerate reliance on automation, remote teams, and AI-driven productivity tools.
According to a report from Staffing Industry Analysts, the latest Vistage survey shows CEOs are pulling back on expansion expectations even as they continue adapting to economic and geopolitical uncertainty that is reshaping the future of work.
Confidence softens as uncertainty reshapes planning
CEO confidence among small and midsize firms edged lower in the first quarter, with the Vistage CEO Confidence Index falling to 87.2 from 88.9 in the fourth quarter of 2025.
While the reading remains above its three-year average, it reflects growing caution among business leaders navigating a volatile global environment.
“Entering 2026, CEOs were prepared for a year of solid growth and a more stable economy,” Vistage Chief Research Officer Joe Galvin said in a press release.
“However, the unanticipated Iran War has left CEOs once again facing an uncertain future. While the full impact of the war is yet to be determined, business leaders must revisit their plans and remain resilient amid ongoing change,” Galvin added.
The survey of 1,302 U.S. CEOs, conducted between March 2 and March 16, suggests that firms are reassessing not only financial forecasts but also workforce structures.
As confidence softens, many companies are expected to lean more heavily on cost optimization strategies, including hybrid work arrangements and outsourcing models that reduce fixed labor costs while preserving operational flexibility.
Hiring slows as AI and workforce transformation accelerate
Hiring expectations also cooled, with 51% of CEOs planning to increase headcount in the year ahead, down from 57% in the previous quarter. The slowdown highlights a more selective approach to talent acquisition as firms weigh economic risks and productivity gains from technology.
At the same time, CEOs are increasingly integrating artificial intelligence (AI) into workforce planning. About 34% are evaluating how to incorporate AI into hiring, while 22% are prioritizing internal upskilling for AI skills.
Only 6% currently include AI skills as a requirement in job postings, though 21% assess them informally during interviews.
The shift signals an early-stage transformation in how SMBs define workforce readiness, with AI literacy emerging as a growing differentiator even as formal requirements remain limited.
Talent conditions remain mixed. While 22% of CEOs say finding qualified workers is easier than last year, 13% say it is more difficult. Some leaders also point to layoffs at larger firms as a growing source of available talent for smaller organizations.
Only 27% of CEOs now expect U.S. economic conditions to improve over the next year, down from 32% in the prior survey, underscoring continued caution in strategic planning.
Taken together, the findings suggest SMBs are entering a phase where hiring restraint, digital transformation, and distributed workforce models are becoming central to how companies navigate uncertainty in the evolving future of work.
