U.S. hospitals face critical bed shortage by 2032: UCLA study
CALIFORNIA, UNITED STATES — Researchers of the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) School of Medicine found that the United States is heading toward a critical hospital bed shortage, with national occupancy rates projected to reach dangerous levels by 2032.
Post-pandemic hospital capacity crisis
The research, published in JAMA Network Open, shows a dramatic shift in hospital occupancy rates following the COVID-19 pandemic.
While pre-pandemic occupancy averaged 63.9% between 2009 and 2019, it has jumped to 75.3% in the post-public health emergency period from May 2023 to April 2024.
This increase stems primarily from a 16% reduction in staffed hospital beds, dropping from 802,000 to 674,000, while the daily patient census remained stable at approximately 510,000.
State-by-state disparities
The study reveals significant geographic variations in hospital occupancy.
Rhode Island tops the list with an 88% occupancy rate, while Wyoming shows the lowest at 43%, highlighting substantial regional differences in healthcare capacity. These variations suggest some states face more immediate risks of reaching critical capacity levels.
“We’ve all heard about increased hospital occupancy during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, but these findings show that hospitals are as full, if not more so, than they were during the pandemic, even well into 2024 during what would be considered a post-pandemic steady state,” said Dr. Richard Leuchter, assistant professor of medicine at the David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA.
Future projections and solutions
Without intervention, annual hospitalizations are expected to increase from 36.17 million in 2025 to 40.18 million by 2035, driven by an aging population.
The study suggests three potential solutions to avoid reaching the critical 85% occupancy threshold:
- Increase staffed hospital bed supply by 10%
- Reduce hospitalization rates by 10%
- Implement a combination of both approaches
Dr. Leuchter and his colleagues emphasize that these projections may actually underestimate the severity of the situation, as they don’t account for increased lengths of stay observed since 2019 or potential changes in population health status.
“For general hospital beds that are not ICU-level, many consider a bed shortage to occur at an 85% national hospital occupancy, marked by unacceptably long waiting times in emergency departments, medication errors and other in-hospital adverse events,” Leuchter said.
“If the U.S. were to sustain a national hospital occupancy of 85% or greater, it is likely that we would see tens to hundreds of thousands of excess American deaths each year.”
The researchers call for an urgent investigation into the causes of reduced hospital bed supply, particularly focusing on tight healthcare labor markets and hospital closures.
They also recommend exploring new frameworks to improve national health system resilience, such as distributing resources based on geographic demand and implementing innovative care models like next-day clinics to reduce avoidable hospitalizations.
