Economists expect AI to weigh on college grads’ wages: Indeed
- Indeed Hiring Lab surveyed 123 economists and experts.
- The panel expects unemployment at 4.23% by the end of 2026.
- The AI wage index for college-educated workers fell to 42.4 from 47.3.
- 45% said AI’s net effect on employment is a minor negative.
TEXAS, UNITED STATES — Economists now expect artificial intelligence (AI) to put more downward pressure on the real wages of college-educated U.S. workers over the next year than they did a quarter ago, even as their outlook for hiring grew slightly steadier.
Panel sees more AI wage pressure on degree holders
The diffusion index on whether AI would have a more negative impact on college-educated workers’ wages fell from 47.3 last quarter to 42.4, the most pronounced quarter-over-quarter change in the survey, according to Indeed Hiring Lab.
The comparable reading for non-college-educated workers was unchanged at 50.9, suggesting the panel sees no meaningful AI wage pressure in either direction for that group.
The panel’s AI displacement index for college-educated workers stood at 55.6, signaling a slight rise in the perceived likelihood of AI-driven job loss, against a near-neutral 48.1 for non-college workers.
Panelists singled out administrative assistance, software development, and data and analytics as the fields expected to see the largest AI-driven job losses over the next 12 months.
Unemployment seen drifting to 4.23%
On average, the 123 panelists expect the September unemployment rate at 4.15%, drifting up to 4.23% by the end of 2026 and to 4.32% by September 2027.
They expect the Indeed Job Postings Index to rise 0.13% in the fourth quarter but to be 0.89% lower by September 2027.
Almost half (45%) said AI’s net effect on employment was a “minor negative,” while 25% called it a “minor positive” and 21% said it has no net effect.
The survey was fielded between Sept. 8 and Sept. 16 with Pulsenomics LLC.
Administrative assistance topping the list of expected AI losses points to the same back-office work that companies often move to offshore outsourcing and business process outsourcing (BPO) partners. When AI trims entry-level and administrative roles, buyers comparing the top BPO companies worldwide can expect providers to pitch AI-assisted teams rather than headcount alone.
Indeed’s survey confirms that economists see AI’s near-term wage bite landing on college-educated workers.
For enterprise buyers planning 2027 staffing, that shifts the question from how many roles to fill to which tasks AI and outside teams can absorb.
BPO operators that pair trained staff with AI tools are positioned to take on administrative work that in-house hiring no longer covers.
Related news
- Connecticut employers must now disclose AI-linked layoffs · 2 Oct
- AI-exposed jobs see faster pay growth: Indeed · 23 Sep
- Graduate underemployment hits 42.5% as entry jobs shrink: study · 19 May
Disclosure: Outsource Accelerator uses AI tools in the backend of its editorial workflow. Every article is reviewed and verified by a human editor before publication.
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