Philippine BPO calls AI threat real but manageable
MANILA, PHILIPPINES — The Philippine information technology and business process management (IT-BPM) industry has cut its 2028 revenue target to a range of $43.3 billion to $50.5 billion from the $59 billion set in 2022, with trade body IBPAP framing artificial intelligence (AI) as a real force reshaping the sector’s growth path but not an existential threat to employment.
According to IBPAP’s midterm review of its six-year industry roadmap, the revised targets reflect changes in buyer decision timelines and AI’s accelerating effect on the mix of services the industry delivers, not a fundamental contraction in demand for Philippine outsourcing.
IBPAP cuts 2028 revenue target to $50.5Bn as AI shifts growth assumptions
The industry reported revenues of more than $40 billion and employed 1.9 million workers in 2025. IBPAP projects revenues of $42.3 billion and employment of 1.96 million workers by the end of 2026, a continued upward trajectory, before AI’s longer-term effect on entry-level functions reduces the rate at which revenue growth translates into proportional job growth.
The 2028 employment ceiling has been revised down to a range of 1.85 million to 2.14 million workers, against an original 2022 roadmap target of 2.5 million.
“The future of the industry remains promising, but how we continue to grow will change,” said Jack Madrid, president and CEO of IBPAP.
Entry-level automation accelerates redeployment rather than net job loss
Basic customer inquiries, password resets, data entry, transcription, appointment scheduling, and templated chat and email support are among the functions most exposed to AI automation, according to the midterm review.
Work requiring judgment, accountability, empathy, domain expertise, and complex problem-solving is expected to remain more resilient to displacement.
Buyer investment decisions slowed rather than stopped over the past three years, a pattern Madrid attributed to macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty rather than a permanent shift away from Philippine outsourcing.
Entry-level positions affected by AI pilots have largely been redeployed within member organizations rather than eliminated, according to Madrid’s account of business process outsourcing (BPO) industry feedback gathered from IBPAP’s membership.
“I think AI is a real development, but I think we have not really seen it scale yet,” Madrid added.
For outsourcing operators and buyers tracking Philippine delivery capacity, the revised roadmap signals a sector recalibrating growth expectations without abandoning its core value proposition.
The narrowing of the 2028 revenue window reflects AI adoption pressure and buyer caution, but IBPAP’s posture is managed transition rather than disruption: the industry is moving from high-volume capacity delivery toward higher-skill, higher-value functions, accelerated by tools its workforce is actively being trained to use.
The 1.9 million workers already employed in the sector represent a base the association is working to move up the value chain rather than reduce.
Related news
- Philippine IT-BPM cuts its growth targets on AI · 17 Jul
- AI can power PH growth but threatens BPO: World Bank · 10 Aug
- Philippine BPOs lead in early AI adoption: IBPAP · Jan 2025
Disclosure: Outsource Accelerator uses AI tools in the backend of its editorial workflow. Every article is reviewed and verified by a human editor before publication.
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