Trump tariffs trigger recession fears among CEOs, CNBC survey reveals
NEW JERSEY, UNITED STATES — A recent CNBC survey of 22 CEOs from its CEO Council has revealed widespread concern over the economic impact of United States President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs.
The majority of respondents—69%—expect a recession, with over half predicting it will hit this year. JPMorgan Chase has raised its recession odds to 60%, while BlackRock CEO Larry Fink remarked, “Most CEOs I talk to would say we are probably in a recession right now.”
Job cuts and price hikes loom
The survey also highlighted the likelihood of job losses and price increases. Over one-third (37%) of CEOs said they expect to cut jobs this year, while 82% anticipate “resurgent inflation.” Many companies are already planning to raise prices by 5% to 20%, passing some of the tariff costs onto consumers.
“We imagine that our suppliers will have to swallow part of the tariff and we will have to pass on part of the tariff to our customers. We are controlling what we can control, pricing and sourcing decisions. We can’t control the impact of tariffs on the consumer mindset which we imagine could be significant,” one CEO said.
Others worry about anti-American sentiment abroad, with fears of boycotts against U.S. brands in international markets.
Uncertainty stalls investment
The unpredictability surrounding trade policy has led many businesses to delay or downsize investment plans.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that the economic effects of the tariffs would likely include “higher inflation and slower growth.”
Former St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard echoed these concerns, calling the uncertainty a “self-fulfilling recession prophecy.”
Despite assurances from Trump’s administration that the tariffs will lead to long-term economic gains through reshoring manufacturing, only 27% of surveyed CEOs believe this outcome is likely.
For now, skepticism dominates. As one CEO summarized: “All of the uncertainty with how it’s being handled will harm our business and limit investment until this is all concluded.”
The tariffs triggered a 10% drop in the S&P 500 last week. “Disappointingly stupid and illogical,” one CEO said of the trade policy.
Another criticized the administration’s approach, stating, “Without faith that our government knows what it is doing, it is impossible for businesses to thrive.”
