U.S. CEO confidence index plummets to lowest in nearly 50 years
NEW YORK, UNITED STATES — CEO confidence in the United States economy has plummeted to levels not seen in decades, according to the latest Measure of CEO Confidence by The Conference Board in collaboration with The Business Council.
The index fell 26 points to a reading of 34 in the second quarter of 2025—its steepest quarter-over-quarter drop since the survey began in 1976.
“CEO Confidence collapsed in Q2 2025 after surging in Q1,” said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist at The Conference Board. “All components of the Measure weakened into pessimism territory.”
The report highlights that 82% of surveyed CEOs believe current economic conditions are worse than six months ago, compared to just 11% who said the same in Q1. Only 2% felt conditions had improved.
Recession fears and strategic pullbacks
Eighty-three percent of CEOs now expect a U.S. recession within the next 12 to 18 months, nearing levels last seen in late 2022.
Top business risks cited include geopolitical instability, trade and tariffs, and regulatory uncertainty. Meanwhile, concerns about cyber threats—which dominated recent years—have declined in priority.
Investment and workforce plans reflect the mounting uncertainty. The share of CEOs revising capital spending plans downward doubled to 26%, while those planning to increase investments dropped from 33% to 19%.
Hiring projections also weakened, with only 28% expecting to expand their workforce, down from 32% in Q1. Wage growth expectations are softening as well. Just 58% of CEOs now plan to raise wages by 3% or more, down from 71% last quarter.
Bleak outlook despite trade developments
Some 64% of CEOs anticipate economic conditions will deteriorate further, from 15% the previous quarter. A similar shift was seen in their outlook for their own industries—51% expect worsening conditions, up from just 14% in Q1.
Despite the U.S.–China trade deal announced on May 12, CEO sentiment remained bleak. Guichard noted that executives surveyed before and after the deal expressed similar levels of pessimism, though those responding post-announcement were slightly less negative.
The Q2 2025 survey included responses from 133 CEOs between May 5 and May 19.
