U.S. healthcare to face 100,000 worker shortage by 2028: Mercer report
NEW YORK, UNITED STATES — The United States is projected to face a shortage of 100,000 healthcare workers by 2028, according to a report by Mercer.
Despite an anticipated increase in the healthcare workforce to 18.6 million, up by over 1.5 million from 2023, demand is expected to rise to 18.7 million, leaving a significant gap.
This shortfall adds further strain to an already burdened healthcare system, which is grappling with geographic and demographic disparities in access to care.
Geographic disparities highlighted
Mercer’s analysis revealed stark geographic disparities in the distribution of healthcare workers in the U.S. New York is expected to experience the most severe shortage, with a projected deficit of 61,473 workers.
Other states facing notable deficits include New Jersey (-17,769), Tennessee (-16,719), Massachusetts (-12,329), and Georgia (-11,308).
In contrast, states like California, Pennsylvania, and Texas are projected to have surpluses of 16,591, 16,036, and 9,035 workers, respectively. This uneven distribution underscores the challenges in addressing healthcare access across different regions.
Physician shortages and specialty gaps
The report also highlights significant variations in physician workforce projections. Texas, California, and New York are expected to face large shortages, while states like Pennsylvania and Minnesota may see surpluses.
California is projected to have the greatest shortages of OB-GYNs and pediatricians, with deficits of 406 and 732, respectively. North Carolina is anticipated to face a deficit of 1,394 family medicine physicians.
Strategic implications for healthcare systems
These findings have critical implications for U.S. healthcare systems, which must adopt proactive strategies to address these workforce challenges. The report suggests that “healthcare systems will need to ‘up their game’ if they want to win this competition for talent.”
This includes identifying labor risks, enhancing talent acquisition and retention strategies, and ensuring competitive compensation to attract and retain workers.
Addressing the workforce crisis
The shortage of healthcare workers has been a long-standing issue exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. With the anticipated shortfall, healthcare systems must focus on mitigating these risks to maintain quality patient care. Legislation, such as the Bipartisan Primary Care and Health Workforce Act, is being proposed to address these challenges.
Mercer’s comprehensive review provides insights into the projected supply and demand of healthcare occupations, offering a roadmap for stakeholders to navigate future uncertainties and ensure continued access to care across the nation.
