AI layoffs aren’t delivering the expected returns: Gartner

CONNECTICUT, UNITED STATES — Eight in 10 companies piloting AI or autonomous technology cut workers — but those reductions showed no correlation with higher return on investment, according to a Gartner study of 350 global executives at companies with at least $1 billion in annual revenue.

Companies replacing workers with AI are missing the returns

The companies reporting the highest ROI were those using AI for “people amplification” — enhancing what workers can do rather than eliminating positions. 

Workforce reduction rates were nearly equal between high-ROI and low-ROI companies, suggesting headcount cuts are not the differentiating factor in AI value creation. 

A separate Gartner CEO survey found roughly one-third of executives expect AI to assist human decision-making, while 27% anticipate fully autonomous AI with minimal human involvement.

“Chasing value only through headcount reduction is likely to lead most organizations down a path of limited returns,” said Helen Poitevin, VP analyst at Gartner. 

The data shows that cutting jobs to fund AI is not the same as using AI well — and that distinction is costing companies the returns they announced when they made the cuts.

AI washing clouds the true scope of the layoff wave

Not all AI-attributed job cuts are what they appear to be. Challenger, Gray and Christmas data shows AI was the leading stated reason for layoffs in March and April 2026, with 49,135 total AI-related cuts for the year already nearing the full 2025 annual figure. 

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei recently walked back his earlier prediction that AI would eliminate half of white-collar entry-level positions, adding another layer of uncertainty to the stated rationale behind mass reductions.

“I don’t know what the exact percentage is, but there’s some AI washing where people are blaming AI for layoffs that they would otherwise do, and then there’s some real displacement by AI of different kinds of jobs,” OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said in a February interview. 

With 49,135 AI-attributed layoffs through April 2026 already nearing last year’s total, Gartner’s ROI findings raise a pointed question: how many of those cuts are actually delivering the returns companies claimed when they made them.

For business process outsourcing (BPO) and outsourcing companies, the Gartner findings reframe the client conversation. Enterprises cutting  headcount in the name of AI ROI are, by this data, taking the wrong path. 

Outsourcing partners that demonstrate workforce amplification — not just cost reduction — are better positioned to make the business case for  managed services, offering clients the returns they thought layoffs would deliver.