Economist predicts shift to ‘Big Stay of 2023’
NEW YORK, UNITED STATES — The Great Resignation, a trend that started in 2021 where workers quit their jobs to find better opportunities, seems to be winding down and is shifting to the “Big Stay of 2023,” said ADP’s chief economist Nela Richardson.
Richardson’s statement is supported by the data showing that the share of Americans quitting their jobs is declining, and the monthly job openings rate is also sliding.
One possible reason for the decline in job-hopping is that it may not pay off like it used to. ADP Pay Insights data shows that the year-over-year percent increase in pay for job changers was at its lowest pace of growth since November 2021 in April.
On the other hand, the 12-month moving average data from the Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker shows that job switchers still see a median raise of 7.6%, compared to just 5.6% for workers who stay at the same job.
Richardson’s “Big Stay” could also have different implications for employers, employees, and job seekers.
“As demand for workers continues to fade, employees will be less willing and able to leave their old jobs,” said Nick Bunker, the head of economic research at the Indeed Hiring Lab.
At the same time, Glassdoor Chief Economist Aaron Terrazas said employers could find themselves unprepared for the next wave of the Great Resignation if they are not attuned to the shifting labor market.
