Automation could absorb half of U.S. work hours by 2035: McKinsey
- AI could automate more than half of U.S. work hours by 2035, MGI says.
- Lost demand equals 36 million jobs, against about 41 million created.
- Office and admin support roles face about 80% of hours automated.
- About 11 million Americans may need to change occupations.
NEW YORK, UNITED STATES — Artificial intelligence (AI) could automate more than half of U.S. work hours over the next decade without shrinking the workforce, but millions of workers may need to change careers to keep up. The bigger challenge is skills, not the number of jobs.
More jobs, but different ones
Technological and economic changes could reduce labor demand by the equivalent of 36 million jobs over the next decade, while economic growth could create demand for about 41 million, according to McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) research reported by Fortune.
The U.S. could have more jobs in 2035 than today, even as technology changes how people work.
Office and administrative support roles face particular exposure, with roughly 80% of current work hours potentially automated by 2035. That does not mean 80% of those jobs will disappear, but it signals how much the roles could change.
In fields such as management and law, where judgment, coordination and accountability matter, AI is more likely to help people do their jobs than replace them.
Eleven million career switches
MGI estimates that about 11 million Americans may need to leave declining occupations for new ones, or roughly 770,000 a year over the next decade. That is about 3.6 times the historical rate, according to McKinsey senior partners Eric Kutcher and Tanguy Catlin.
Credentials add another hurdle. About 85% of growing employment requires a credential or certification, which is legally required for 38% of those jobs and preferred by employers for another 47%.
MGI suggests companies could widen their talent pools by giving more weight to proven skills and experience. It also recommends tracking whether employees move into new roles and how workers fare, not just AI-related cost savings.
When office and administrative work is the most exposed to automation, business process outsourcing (BPO) and offshore outsourcing partners that move staff into higher-skill work become part of a client’s transition plan.
When new roles demand credentials, buyers comparing the top BPO companies worldwide can ask providers how they certify and retrain their teams.
MGI’s research shows automation reshaping U.S. work far more than it shrinks it. For enterprise buyers, the real constraint is the skills needed for the jobs that grow. BPO operators that retrain people quickly are positioned to win the next round of work.
Related news
- AI is rewriting jobs more than cutting them, Workday finds · 14 Oct
- Only 4% of CHROs feel very prepared to lead AI-driven change · 10 Oct
- Executives may be overestimating AI’s speed: report · 18 Aug
Disclosure: Outsource Accelerator uses AI tools in the backend of its editorial workflow. Every article is reviewed and verified by a human editor before publication.
Stay ahead of the outsourcing industry. Join thousands of business leaders who rely on Outsource Accelerator for the news, trends, and expert insights that matter. Subscribe to our free newsletter and never miss an update.
