CEOs planning job cuts nearly match those hiring: Conference Board
- 31% of CEOs expect to reduce their workforce, up from 28% in Q3.
- 33% expect to expand their workforce, down from 34%.
- The Conference Board Measure of CEO Confidence fell to 46 from 52.
- 48% of CEOs expect AI’s greatest value in productivity and cost reduction.
NEW YORK, UNITED STATES — The share of U.S. chief executives expecting to reduce their workforce rose to 31% in the fourth quarter of 2026, nearly matching the 33% who expect to expand, in The Conference Board’s latest quarterly CEO survey. Three months earlier, 34% planned to add staff and 28% planned cuts.
Confidence at its lowest since 2025
The Measure of CEO Confidence, produced with The Business Council, fell six points to 46 from 52 in the third quarter, according to The Conference Board’s release. A reading below 50 reflects more negative than positive responses, and 131 CEOs took part in the survey, fielded from Sept. 21 through Oct. 5.
“CEO confidence fell in Q4 2026 to its lowest level since Q2 2025. This reversed a mild rebound in Q3 2026, potentially in response to rising geopolitical tensions and elevated oil prices during the survey period,” said Dana M Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board.
Some 41% of CEOs expected economic conditions to worsen over the next six months, up sharply from 19% in the third quarter. Another 36% anticipated no change in their workforce.
Wages rise despite caution
Most CEOs (57%) still plan annual wage increases of 3% to 3.9%. The share planning raises of 4% or more rose to 16%, and a majority (61%) expect either no problem hiring qualified people or problems only in some areas.
“Despite weaker views of the overall economy and conditions in their own industries, most CEOs expect to maintain (53%) or even increase (36%) their existing capital investment plans,” said Roger W. Ferguson, Jr., vice chairman of The Business Council.
AI as a productivity lever
Asked where AI will create the greatest measurable value over the next three years, 48% of CEOs chose productivity and operating-cost reduction. Some 40% named failing to transform the organization fast enough as the AI risk that most threatens enterprise value.
Nearly a third (32%) are building AI-driven productivity gains of 5% to 10% into their plans for the next three to five years, and 11% expect more than 20%. Cyber, AI and new technology, and geopolitical risks remained the top three industry risks.
For employers, a near-even split between hiring and cutting, combined with AI productivity targets, points to workforce plans built around cost and output. Companies weighing offshore outsourcing or artificial intelligence (AI) tools to protect margins can compare providers on the top AI outsourcing companies list.
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