U.S. workers see job-loss risk at lowest since 2024: NY Fed
- Expected job-loss probability fell to 13.5%, the lowest since December 2024.
- The expected quit rate rose 0.4 percentage point to 19.9%.
- One-year inflation expectations rose to 3.9%, the highest since May 2023.
- Expected earnings growth fell 0.3 percentage point to 2.6%.
NEW YORK, UNITED STATES — U.S. households grew more confident about their jobs in September even as they braced for higher prices, with the expected risk of losing a job falling to its lowest level since December 2024. More workers also expect to quit in the next year, and they rate their chances of finding a new job higher.
The job outlook brightens
The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months fell 0.3 percentage point to 13.5%, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s September Survey of Consumer Expectations showed. The expected quit rate rose 0.4 percentage point to 19.9%, above its 12-month trailing average of 18.5%.
The perceived chance of finding a job after losing one rose 0.7 percentage point to 46.1%, while the probability that U.S. unemployment will be higher a year from now fell 0.5 percentage point to 43.9%. The drop in job-loss expectations was driven by people aged 40 to 60 and households earning over $100,000, while the rise in quit expectations came from those without a bachelor’s degree and those above age 40.
Prices and pay pull apart
Inflation expectations moved the other way. Median one-year-ahead inflation expectations rose 0.3 percentage point to 3.9%, the highest reading since May 2023, while expected earnings growth fell 0.3 percentage point to 2.6%.
Households also expect to spend more, with median spending growth expectations up 0.3 percentage point to 5.5%. Expected price increases rose for gas, food, medical care and rent, and the expected cost of a college education jumped 1.4 percentage points to 7.5%.
At the same time, perceptions and expectations about households’ financial situations deteriorated. The survey draws on a rotating panel of about 1,300 household heads and was fielded from Sept. 1 to Sept. 30.
When more workers expect to quit while pay growth expectations slip, employers face a rising attrition rate in roles that are hard to keep staffed, and offshore outsourcing can stabilize that work. When inflation squeezes budgets, buyers comparing the top BPO companies worldwide can weigh retention records alongside price.
The New York Fed’s survey shows U.S. workers feeling safer in their jobs and more willing to move. For enterprise buyers, that combination raises the cost of keeping teams stable at home. BPO operators that offer steady staffing and predictable pricing are positioned to benefit.
Related news
- U.S. adds just 29,000 jobs in September as unemployment holds at 4.2% · 9 Oct
- U.S. job openings hold at 7.1Mn in August as hiring stays flat · 1 Oct
- U.S. enters a new era of constrained labor supply · 15 Sep
Disclosure: Outsource Accelerator uses AI tools in the backend of its editorial workflow. Every article is reviewed and verified by a human editor before publication.
Stay ahead of the outsourcing industry. Join thousands of business leaders who rely on Outsource Accelerator for the news, trends, and expert insights that matter. Subscribe to our free newsletter and never miss an update.
