AI could displace 1 in 11 workers, mostly in recessions: Goldman
- Goldman Sachs estimates up to 9% of workers could be displaced during the AI transition.
- Slower hiring could weigh on employment by another 3%.
- Goldman economist Joseph Briggs published the note on Oct. 22.
- Only 23% of U.S. establishments have built AI into regular workflows.
NEW YORK, UNITED STATES — Up to 9% of workers could be displaced during the transition to artificial intelligence (AI), roughly one in 11, with slower hiring weighing on employment by another 3%. The bigger finding is about timing: those job losses are likely to concentrate in downturns rather than arrive while the economy is healthy.
Layoffs wait for a downturn
Goldman Sachs economist Joseph Briggs set out the estimate in a note published Oct. 22, as reported by Fortune. It rests on the bank’s forecast that AI eventually lifts productivity by 15% in the U.S. and other developed economies.
Briggs found that “automation-related labor disruption is limited when the overall economy is healthy but accelerates during cyclical slowdowns.” The share of Americans in routine jobs such as clerks, secretaries and factory machine operators has stayed stable during expansions but dropped in the recessions of the early 1980s, 2001, 2008 and 2020.
“A more concerning takeaway from our analysis is that a cyclical slowdown would likely accelerate AI-related automation and job losses, thereby amplifying the broader business cycle,” he wrote.
From 6% to 9%
In August 2025, Briggs and Goldman economist Sarah Dong estimated AI could displace 6% to 7% of the U.S. workforce if widely adopted. By June, Briggs put the figure at about 9%, or 15 million workers over a decade.
He says the displacement is temporary, and the note measures gross job losses rather than unemployment. Across 25 occupations upended by past technology, including file clerks, proofreaders and bank tellers, employment fell 25% on average in the five years after it started to decline, figures Briggs calls “likely upper bounds” for AI.
Why it is quiet now
AI-attributed layoffs in Challenger’s tracking have pulled back sharply from their spring peak. Only 23% of U.S. establishments have built AI into regular workflows, and job growth in the most AI-exposed industries has run about 10,000 below its long-run trend over the past three months.
“Given that the overall economy and labor market have remained resilient in 2026, companies may have had less incentive to focus on aggressively cutting labor costs,” Briggs wrote.
Planning for the next slowdown
The note suggests AI-related job cuts may come in bursts tied to the business cycle rather than at a steady pace. Briggs says AI-related layoffs should provide a good real-time guide to the disruption.
For employers, that argues for mapping which routine roles, from data entry to back office processing, AI could absorb before a downturn forces the decision. Companies weighing AI-enabled support can compare partners on the top AI outsourcing companies list.
Related news
- Fed: firms in 5 of 12 districts curb hiring after AI investment · 20 Oct 2026
- Automation could absorb half of U.S. work hours by 2035: McKinsey · 15 Oct 2026
- U.S. call-center jobs now 39% below trend: Goldman · 25 Aug 2026
Disclosure: Outsource Accelerator uses AI tools in the backend of its editorial workflow. Every article is reviewed and verified by a human editor before publication.
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