Think tank Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) kept its 2022 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast for the Philippines at 7.1% —the highest in the ASEAN-4 region.
In a report, JCER said that this move follows the country’s stronger-than-expected 8.3% economic expansion during Q1 2022.
JCER expects the second-quarter GDP to grow 8.7%; the third quarter by 6.9%; and the fourth quarter by 4.8%on waning low-base effects.
The think tank’s 2022 growth forecast for the Philippines was higher than its projections for other ASEAN-4 countries — namely Malaysia (5.4%), Indonesia (4.7%), and Thailand (3.5%).
As for the whole region, JCER disclosed that its real GDP increased from 4.4% in Q4 2021 to 4.9% in Q1 2022 due to private consumption.
However, the firm warned that exports are expected to fall across ASEAN-4 in Q2 2022 which would then bleed into a modest recovery in Q3 due to “China’s economic slowdown and distortions in international trade and specialization.”