Robots pay off for just 300,000 U.S. jobs today, Anthropic finds
- Robots can technically do three-quarters of U.S. physical work.
- Robots are cost-competitive in only 0.3% of cases, about 300,000 jobs.
- A 20% cost drop would lift that to 2.8 million jobs.
- Taxi drivers are the most exposed, at 2.2 on Anthropic’s 0-3 index.
CALIFORNIA, UNITED STATES — Robots are technically capable of three-quarters of the physical work done in the United States, which makes up 34% of working hours, yet using them is cost-competitive in only 0.3% of cases. That equals about 300,000 jobs today, a figure that could reach 2.8 million within seven years as costs fall.
Capability is not cost
Drivers and warehouse-related jobs are the most exposed to being taken over by robots, according to an analysis by AI company Anthropic reported by HR Dive. Autonomous vehicle technology has advanced enough that robots could do about 97% of a taxi driver’s work, giving the job an exposure rate of 2.2 on a 0-3 index, the highest of all work.
Whether robots actually take over a job also depends on cost, adjusted for reliability, error rates and speed, as well as on whether people accept robots doing the work and on regulatory restraints. “Autonomous vehicles have yet to upend driving jobs at scale, but their capabilities suggest that these jobs are at higher risk of automation than others,” the analysis said.
Where robots fit
Robots in structured environments such as assembly lines can do almost 50% of physical tasks, compared with about 22% in warehouses and less than 2% in unstructured settings like construction sites. Warehouse packers are at near-term risk because robots can do much of that work cost-effectively.
A robot doing the work of 14 packers, who typically earn about $49,000 a year, would cost less than the workers over its 10-year expected life, even after a $2 million purchase cost and $45,000 in annual operating costs. Robot prices have declined roughly 3% a year since the 1990s, and a 20% drop, which could take about seven years, would lift cost-competitive jobs from 300,000 to 2.8 million.
Who is least exposed
Jobs that need dexterity in unstructured settings, or interpersonal skill, face little risk. Teaching people to dance is physical work, but it needs cognitive and interpersonal skills in about 54% of its work time.
“Taxi drivers and warehouse packers will see changes sooner than nurses and mechanics,” the analysis said.
For employers, the gap between what robots can do and what they can do profitably leaves time to plan. Companies weighing artificial intelligence (AI) and automation against people can also look at business process outsourcing (BPO) for work that stays cheaper with human staff, and compare providers on the top AI outsourcing companies list.
Related news
- Automation could absorb half of U.S. work hours by 2035: McKinsey · 15 Oct
- Workers fear for junior roles more than their own: Anthropic · 22 Aug
- Hybrid human-AI labor markets are rising: Adecco · 30 Jul
Disclosure: Outsource Accelerator uses AI tools in the backend of its editorial workflow. Every article is reviewed and verified by a human editor before publication.
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